There is usually a lot of value in laying teams who are odds on and playing away from home. Home advantage is massive in football and seldom is it worth backing any team at such low odds if they are away.

This rule I generally apply quite liberally for league games, on the basis that if they are in the same league then they are not too far apart in ability. For FA Cup games we should be more weary but still find plenty of opportunity for a lay. Add to this the propensity for teams to view the FA Cup as nothing but a little added cash, though not something which should hinder a promotion or relegation fight. In modern football the dream of getting to Wembley for a lower club has all but died with only a select few really having much chance of reaching the final, never mind winning the trophy.

So, First team who are odds on and playing away are Millwall. Dagenham are so low in the bottom pro tier it is hard to make a case for them getting anything out of this game so No Bet.

Fleetwood Town V Blackpool.

Fleetwood may be in non-league but that is no barrier to quality. Teams who get promoted from the Conference often get promoted the following year and many now consider the Conference to be a better division than the one above it. Looking like strong contenders for automatic promotion Blackpool have their work cut out if they are to beat a team who are unbeaten in 11 games. A team used to winning is a difficult team for anyone so no surprise if the surprise result of the day is here.

Lay Blackpool at anything up to evens.

Gillingham V Stoke

Gillingham are doing well in League Two having lost only once at home. Stoke are very busy this season with their Euro campaign and push for a high spot in the Prem. Away they have been average, only scoring 8 goals and conceding 20. I suspect a tough task for Stoke and their heart may not be a 100% in it.

Lay Stoke at 1.7

Macclesfield V Bolton

Last week I would probably have gone against Bolton but they are getting their act together and will want to keep momentum. No prisoners to be taken against a distinctly average League two side. Much as the Bolton win at 1.66 is tempting (to lay) I would still consider this a bet to stay away from. No Bet

Bristol Rovers V Aston Villa

Villa being a side who seemed on the precipice of self destruction, I would dearly love to be able to side against them at long odds on. However, an even more dire and struggling team such as BR is not a club I would wish to have any of my hard earned relying on.

No Bet

UPDATE

So there is a lesson in second guessing. In league football I don’t think about the bet too much, just lay teams away from home if they are odds – on. That way you will make money.

If I had done the same here rather than try to filter out the ones who just had too big a gulf in class then the day would have ended in profit. The two I chose bombed, the two I decided to leave were both winning bets. Millwall and Bolton both only managed draws. Blackpool and Stoke both came through, though as they were odds on the profit from the winning bets would more than paid for our loss.

Lesson: Lay teams away from home if they are odds on.